Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military DecisionmakingIn this report, the authors describe an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Their central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Although many features of the future can be predicted with reasonable confidence, the emphasis here is on the many that cannot. High-level decision makers are commonly afflicted with deep uncertainties that materially affect the choice of a course of action but that cannot be substantially resolved by merely working harder. Such issues have been studied in a variety of fields, and the answer to the problem they pose is clear: The solution is to adopt a course of action that is as flexible, adaptive, and robust as possible. This is in contrast to making a best estimate of the future and preparing only for that. The central idea is that instead of treating uncertainty as an annoyance that merely disrupts developments on the margin, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have great skill in recognizing when adaptations are needed and in making them at the right time. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment consistent with an uncertainty-sensitive approach. That framework includes principles such as being top-down, expressing concepts in simple and intuitive language, dealing explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and providing zoom capability so that decision makers can readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. The authors describe two explicit methods and their related tools: the first involves "portfolio-style thinking and analysis," and the second is a novel modification of what has come to be called "foresight exercises." |
Contents
CHAPTER SEVEN | 3 |
CHAPTER THREE | 11 |
How Much Uncertainty Analysis Is Enough? | 16 |
PortfolioManagement Tools | 22 |
CHAPTER FIVE | 29 |
CHAPTER | 45 |
Building LowResolution Models for Exploratory Analysis | 53 |
Conclusions | 57 |
Bibliography | 71 |
Common terms and phrases
achieve adaptive Air Force alternative analysis analytical applications approach assessments assumptions attack better building called Chapter choice coalition Commander’s commanders concept considerations considered consistent context Corporation courses of action critical Davis deal decision support decision-support systems decisionmaking Defense depends described detail develop different dimensions discussed documents drawing effects effects-based effort enemy Environment evaluating example exercises exist experts factors Figure first foresight framework future gaming given high-level human identify important initial intuitive investment involve issues Joint Forces less levels logic marginal Measure methods military modeling and simulation needed objectives operations options Outcome particular planning portfolio possible potential Predictive prepare present problem programs question RAND rational-analytic reasonably recent refers relatively represent risks scenario situations sometimes space strategies strike structuring style suggested Table tasks teams theory thinking uncertainty understanding various zoom