Climate Change: A Natural Hazard

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multi-science publishing, 2004 - Science - 207 pages
This text argues that climate change is a natural phenomenon and that the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has overlooked this straightforward cause for global warming because the climate models the IPCC has created are oversimplified. The models' faults are vigorously examined, including what has been left out and what has not been accorded proper weight. The book outlines the continuing need to better understand and predict natural climate variations to underpin better planning, including sound infrastructure development and mitigation strategies, so that the huge annual human and property losses worldwide from climate extremes can be avoided.
 

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Contents

A Rush to Judgement
1
Flawed science
5
The Climate of Past Age
11
Reconstructing past climate
17
Ice Ages and lesser climate fluctuations
20
The human dimensions of climate change
26
Explanations for Climate Variability
31
Recent global warming
36
Atmospheric angular momentum
95
Variation of atmospheric energy transport
100
The Oceans
105
Surface temperature and upwelling
110
Ocean overturning the thermohaline circulation
114
The El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO
120
Carbon dioxide and Climate Variability
127
Growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide
129

Statistical methods for climate reconstruction
39
Processes of the Climate System
49
Radiation Forcing of Climate
55
Solar radiation
57
Terrestrial radiation53
59
Poleward energy transport
62
The Atmosphere
65
Mixing of energy through the troposphere
67
Temperature trends of the tropical troposphere
72
Surface energy exchanges
76
Polar ice and surface energy exchange
81
Seasonal patterns of tropical convection
84
Transport of Energy by the Atmosphere
91
The concept of radiative forcing
134
Solar Influences on Climate
143
Internal Variability of the Climate System
151
Conditional instability
157
Sensitivity to solar forcing
166
Computer Modelling of the Climate System
169
Development of Computer Modelling
171
Performance of computer models
176
Simulations of the 20th Century Climate
184
Future Climate
195
Misleading climate projections
197
Planning for an uncertain world
202
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About the author (2004)

William Kininmonth is the director of the Australasian Climate Research Institute and the author of The 1997–98 El Nio Event: A Scientific and Technical Retrospective.

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