Scenarios: The Art of Strategic ConversationJohn Wiley & Sons, 10 mars 2011 - 384 pages Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty. |
Table des matières
The Principles of Scenariobased Planning | |
The perceptional iceberg | |
Scenario Analysis | |
Principle of iterative scenario building | |
Scenarios test the Business Idea | |
The iterative scenario analysis process | |
Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation | |
The fiveforces model of competition | |
Scenario Development | |
Starting an influence diagram | |
Example of a driving force analysis | |
The Mont Fleur scenario structure | |
Scenario structure based on dominant trends | |
Example of a scenario matrix | |
Driving force ranking space | |
Scenarios provide a new perspective | |
The Practice of Scenariobased Planning | |
The Practitioners | |
The elicitation cycle | |
The business in its environment | |
Articulation of the Business Idea | |
Start of a Business Idea diagram | |
First stage Business Idea diagram | |
Reducing the Business Idea to its essentials | |
The Business Idea considered against scenarios | |
Competitive Positioning | |
The actorstakeholder matrix | |
Option Planning | |
Scenariooption matrix | |
Optionstakeholder matrix | |
Institutionalising Scenariobased Planning | |
The Management of Change | |
Creating action | |
Planning Process | |
The five levels of business planning | |
The Informal Strategic Conversation | |
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Expressions et termes fréquents
action activity approach areas articulate basis become behaviour business environment Business Idea causal client team clustering Competitive Advantage competitors consider context create decision discussion Distinctive Competencies driving forces elements emerge example facilitator factors flipchart forecasting future groupthink happen hygiene factors identify important individual influence diagram institutional internal interview intuitive investments involved issues iterative Lame Duck lead learning loop logic look management team masterplans matrix mental models optional strategies organisation’s organisational learning overall perspective Pierre Wack plausible possible potential predetermined predictable purpose question relevant requires result scenario agenda scenario analysis scenario building scenario planner scenario project scenario team scenario-based planning scoping outcomes set of scenarios situation specific stakeholders step story storyline strategic conversation strategic management structure success SWOT SWOT analysis team needs thinking uncertainty underlying understanding unique insight variables