The Logic of Scientific Discovery

Front Cover
Psychology Press, 2002 - Philosophy - 513 pages

Described by the philosopher A.J. Ayer as a work of 'great originality and power', this book revolutionized contemporary thinking on science and knowledge. Ideas such as the now legendary doctrine of 'falsificationism' electrified the scientific community, influencing even working scientists, as well as post-war philosophy. This astonishing work ranks alongside The Open Society and Its Enemies as one of Popper's most enduring books and contains insights and arguments that demand to be read to this day.

 

Contents

Some Structural Components of a Theory of Experience
6
Theories
7
Causality Explanation and the Deduction of Predictions
12
Strict and Numerical Universality
13
Universal Concepts and Individual Concepts
14
Strictly Universal and Existential Statements
15
Theoretical Systems
16
Some Possibilities of Interpreting a System of Axioms
17
Sequences of Segments The First Form of the Binomial Formula
152
Infinite Sequences Hypothetical Estimates of Frequency
154
An Examination of the Axiom of Randomness
159
ChanceLike Sequences Objective Probability
163
Go Bernoullis Problem
164
The Law of Great Numbers Bernoullis Theorem
168
Bernoullis Theorem and the Interpretation of Probability Statements
171
Bernoullis Theorem and the Problem of Convergence
173

Levels of Universality The Modus Tollens
18
Falsifiability
20
On the Problem of a Theory of Scientific Method
27
Some Conventionalist Objections
57
Methodological Rules
61
Logical Investigation of Falsifiability
64
Falsifiability and Falsification
66
Occurrences and Events
68
Falsifiability and Consistency
72
Psychologism
74
Concerning the SoCalled Protocol Sentences
76
The Objectivity of the Empirical Basis
79
Basic Statements
82
The Relativity of Basic Statements Resolution of Friess Trilemma
86
Theory and Experiment
88
Degrees of Testability 31 A Programme and an Illustration
95
How are Classes of Potential Falsifiers to be Compared?
97
Degrees of Falsifiability Compared by Means of the Subclass Relation
99
The Structure of the Subclass Relation Logical Probability
100
Empirical Content Entailment and Degrees of Falsifiability
103
Levels of Universality and Degrees of Precision
105
37
108
Degrees of Testability Compared by Reference to Dimensions
110
The Dimension of a Set of Curves
115
57
116
Elimination of the Aesthetic and the Pragmatic Concepts of Simplicity 42 The Methodological Problem of Simplicity
122
Simplicity and Degree of Falsifiability
126
Geometrical Shape and Functional Form
128
The Simplicity of Euclidean Geometry
129
Conventionalism and the Concept of Simplicity
130
Probability
133
The Problem of Interpreting Probability Statements
134
Subjective and Objective Interpretations
135
The Fundamental Problem of the Theory of Chance
138
The Frequency Theory of von Mises
139
Plan for a New Theory of Probability
141
Relative Frequency within a Finite Class
143
Selection Independence Insensitiveness Irrelevance
145
Finite Sequences Ordinal Selection and Neighbourhood Selection
147
nFreedom in Finite Sequences
148
Elimination of the Axiom of Convergence Solution of the Fundamental Problem of the Theory of Chance
176
The Problem of Decidability
181
The Logical Form of Probability Statements
183
A Probabilistic System of Speculative Metaphysics
188
Probability in Physics
190
74
191
Law and Chance
198
The Deducibility of Macro Laws from Micro Laws
200
Formally Singular Probability Statements
202
The Theory of Range
206
Some Observations on Quantum Theory
209
Heisenbergs Programme and the Uncertainty Relations
211
A Brief Outline of the Statistical Interpretation of Quantum Theory
216
A Statistical ReInterpretation of the Uncertainty Formulae
218
An Attempt to Eliminate Metaphysical Elements by Inverting Heisenbergs Programme with Applications
224
Decisive Experiments
232
Indeterminist Metaphysics
243
Corroboration or How a Theory Stands up to Tests
248
Concerning the SoCalled Verification of Hypotheses
249
Criticism of Probability Logic
252
Inductive Logic and Probability Logic
261
How a Hypothesis may Prove its Mettle
264
Corroborability Testability and Logical Probability
268
Remarks Concerning the Use of the Concepts True and Corroborated
273
The Path of Science
276
APPENDICES
281
Definition of the Dimension of a Theory
283
The General Calculus of Frequency in Finite Classes
286
Formula
290
Examination of an Objection The TwoSlit
297
Remarks Concerning an Imaginary Experiment
305
Two Notes on Induction and Demarcation
312
vii Zero Probability and the FineStructure
374
viii Content Simplicity and Dimension
392
Statistical Tests
402
x Universals Dispositions and Natural
440
xi On the Use and Misuse of Imaginary
464
INDICES compiled by Dr J Agassi
489
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