Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive YouAn accessible guide to what statistics really mean, the dangers of misreading them, and how to make smart decisions in an uncertain world. Benjamin Franklin famously said that nothing is certain but death and taxes. Yet few of us really understand how to measure the uncertainties we face in life—or how to interpret statistical claims. It’s easy to become overwhelmed by the baffling array of percentages and probabilities we encounter every day. But in Calculated Risks, cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer offers a roadmap for the innumerate. Drawing on real-life examples, Gigerenzer shows how our misunderstanding of numbers can endanger our health and security. He dispels the “illusion of certainty” that accompanies everything from medical screenings to DNA evidence. And he explains how statistics are routinely manipulated or misrepresented—and how to see through the deception. |
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50 percent absolute risk reduction actually American asked base rate battered Bayes's rule behavior benefits blood breast cancer breast cancer screening Chapter clinical clouded thinking colorectal cancer conditional probabilities confusion costs counselors defendant Dershowitz develop breast cancer diagnostic Dick disease DNA evidence DNA fingerprinting DNA profile door early detection errors estimate experts false negatives false positive rate false positives Figure Gigerenzer given a positive HIV test Hoffrage illusion of certainty infected inference informed consent innumeracy instance judgments Kerlikowske Koehler leaflets mammography screening mind tool Monty Hall Monty Hall problem murdered natural frequencies number needed patients person physicians population positive mammogram positive predictive value positive test problem prosecutor's fallacy prostate cancer Psychology question random match probability reason reference class relative risk reduction representations sample sensitivity sexual single-event probabilities Slovic source probability switch test positive test result treatment trial uncertainty virus warden woman women