Engineering Judgement and Risk- Introduction Part 1: The Nature of Judgement - The psychology of judgement - Reasoning and judgement - Expert judgement Part 2: Judgement in Practice - Design judgement - Management judgement - Policy judgement Part 3: Judgement and Risk - Risk as probable loss - Risk as catastrophic failure - Risk as social combat - Risk as global challenge Part 4: Reprise - In praise of rational process - References - Index |
Contents
Introduction | 1 |
The psychology of judgement | 17 |
Reasoning and judgement | 39 |
Expert judgement | 47 |
Design judgement | 69 |
Management judgement | 87 |
Policy judgement | 105 |
Risk as probable loss | 135 |
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ability accidents achieve action actor-network analysis analytical argument artefact associated behaviour biases Chapter codes cognitive continuum complex concept conflict cues decision deductive reasoning deliberate practice domain knowledge economic engineering judgement environment environmental errors example expert expertise factors feedback forecasting function goals HAZOP Herbert Simon heuristics human impact important increase industrial interests intuitive judgement involved logical long-term memory mental models methods microburst mode models theory modus tollens nature NIMBY object organization organizational outcomes Parkin pattern recognition patterns person phronesis planning policy judgements political potential predict probabilistic probability probability theory problem procedural knowledge procedures production professional psychology quasi-rational rational reasoning relevant representativeness heuristic response result risk role rules safety scenarios situation social solution stage strategies structure sustainable development technical techniques tend theory Thomas Telford values worldviews