How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
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Page 12
... asked to consider a hypothetical player who makes 50 % of his shots , they esti- mated that his shooting percentage would be 61 % " after having just made a shot , " and 42 % " after having just missed a shot . " Finally , 84 % of the ...
... asked to consider a hypothetical player who makes 50 % of his shots , they esti- mated that his shooting percentage would be 61 % " after having just made a shot , " and 42 % " after having just missed a shot . " Finally , 84 % of the ...
Page 14
... asked a group of college basketball players to take 100 shots from along an arc that was everywhere an equal distance from the basket . Before each shot the players chose either a risky or conservative bet correspond- ing to whether ...
... asked a group of college basketball players to take 100 shots from along an arc that was everywhere an equal distance from the basket . Before each shot the players chose either a risky or conservative bet correspond- ing to whether ...
Page 16
... asked them to indicate whether each sequence constituted an example of streak shooting . For instance , one of the sequences was OXXXOXXXOXX000XOOXXOO , a sequence in which the order of hits and misses is perfectly random ...
... asked them to indicate whether each sequence constituted an example of streak shooting . For instance , one of the sequences was OXXXOXXXOXX000XOOXXOO , a sequence in which the order of hits and misses is perfectly random ...
Page 21
... explain either their superior or inferior performance with little difficulty.12 If they are asked to account for how a childhood experi- ence such as running away from home could lead during Something Out of Nothing [ 21 ]
... explain either their superior or inferior performance with little difficulty.12 If they are asked to account for how a childhood experi- ence such as running away from home could lead during Something Out of Nothing [ 21 ]
Page 22
... asked to select from an array of pictures the one that goes with the stimuli he or she had just seen . What happens ? The usual response is that the patient selects two pictures . In this instance , the person's left hand ( controlled ...
... asked to select from an array of pictures the one that goes with the stimuli he or she had just seen . What happens ? The usual response is that the patient selects two pictures . In this instance , the person's left hand ( controlled ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York