How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
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Page 14
... average , the players made 75 % of their second free throws after making their first , and 75 % after missing their first . Still unconvinced , a number of people have tried to salvage their belief in the hot hand by suggesting that ...
... average , the players made 75 % of their second free throws after making their first , and 75 % after missing their first . Still unconvinced , a number of people have tried to salvage their belief in the hot hand by suggesting that ...
Page 15
... average basketball player makes about 50 % of his shots , he has a reasonably good chance of looking like he has the hot hand by making four , five , or even six shots in a row if he takes 20 shots in a game ( as many players do ) . To ...
... average basketball player makes about 50 % of his shots , he has a reasonably good chance of looking like he has the hot hand by making four , five , or even six shots in a row if he takes 20 shots in a game ( as many players do ) . To ...
Page 18
... but only in the long term . The law of averages ( called the " law of large numbers " by statisticians ) ensures that there will be close to a 50-50 split after a large number of tosses [ 18 ] Cognitive Determinants of Questionable Beliefs.
... but only in the long term . The law of averages ( called the " law of large numbers " by statisticians ) ensures that there will be close to a 50-50 split after a large number of tosses [ 18 ] Cognitive Determinants of Questionable Beliefs.
Page 21
... average person are not bound by these constraints . Hypotheses that are formed on the basis of one set of results are considered to have been proven by those very same results . By retrospectively and selectively perus- ing the data in ...
... average person are not bound by these constraints . Hypotheses that are formed on the basis of one set of results are considered to have been proven by those very same results . By retrospectively and selectively perus- ing the data in ...
Page 23
... average ) as they are them- selves ; high school valedictorians tend to do well in college , but not as well ( on average ) as they did in high school ; a company's disastrous years tend to be followed by more profitable ones , and its ...
... average ) as they are them- selves ; high school valedictorians tend to do well in college , but not as well ( on average ) as they did in high school ; a company's disastrous years tend to be followed by more profitable ones , and its ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York