How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
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Page 10
... hypotheses , but as established facts . The predisposition to impose order can be so automatic and so unchecked that we often end up believing in the existence of phenomena that just aren't there . To get a better sense of how our ...
... hypotheses , but as established facts . The predisposition to impose order can be so automatic and so unchecked that we often end up believing in the existence of phenomena that just aren't there . To get a better sense of how our ...
Page 12
... hypothesis . If a player's perfor- mance is subject to periods of hot and cold shooting , then he should be more likely to make a shot after making his previous shot ( or previous several shots ) than after missing his previous shot ...
... hypothesis . If a player's perfor- mance is subject to periods of hot and cold shooting , then he should be more likely to make a shot after making his previous shot ( or previous several shots ) than after missing his previous shot ...
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... hypotheses that are subsequently tested on other , independent sets of data . Only if the anomaly persists is the hypothesis to be taken seriously . Unfortunately , the intuitive assessments of the average person are not bound by these ...
... hypotheses that are subsequently tested on other , independent sets of data . Only if the anomaly persists is the hypothesis to be taken seriously . Unfortunately , the intuitive assessments of the average person are not bound by these ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York