How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
From inside the book
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Page 13
Thomas Gilovich. Table 2.1 Probability of Making a Shot Conditioned on the Outcome of Previous Shots for Nine Members ... outcomes of consec- utive shots whether the number of streaks of various lengths exceeded the number to be expected ...
Thomas Gilovich. Table 2.1 Probability of Making a Shot Conditioned on the Outcome of Previous Shots for Nine Members ... outcomes of consec- utive shots whether the number of streaks of various lengths exceeded the number to be expected ...
Page 14
... outcomes of consecutive free throws are independent . On average , the players made 75 % of their second free throws ... outcome of consecutive shots , and hence no connection between their bets and the outcome of the next shot . In ...
... outcomes of consecutive free throws are independent . On average , the players made 75 % of their second free throws ... outcome of consecutive shots , and hence no connection between their bets and the outcome of the next shot . In ...
Page 15
... outcome , or does not have any predictable influence , is the outcome of the previous shot ( s ) . That is what our research shows . This qualification aside , why do people believe in the hot hand . when it does not exist ? There are ...
... outcome , or does not have any predictable influence , is the outcome of the previous shot ( s ) . That is what our research shows . This qualification aside , why do people believe in the hot hand . when it does not exist ? There are ...
Page 16
... outcomes of the same type , and so we have difficulty accepting their true origins . The term illusion is well ... outcomes of consecutive shots . The number of adjacent shots with the same outcome ( i.e. , xx or oo ) in the sequence is ...
... outcomes of the same type , and so we have difficulty accepting their true origins . The term illusion is well ... outcomes of consecutive shots . The number of adjacent shots with the same outcome ( i.e. , xx or oo ) in the sequence is ...
Page 18
... outcomes , instances , and categories on relatively salient and even superficial features , and then to use these ... outcomes it produces an approximate 50-50 split of heads and tails . In exam- ining a sequence of coin flips , this 50 ...
... outcomes , instances , and categories on relatively salient and even superficial features , and then to use these ... outcomes it produces an approximate 50-50 split of heads and tails . In exam- ining a sequence of coin flips , this 50 ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York