How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
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Page 12
... responses indicated that it does : 91 % thought that a player has " a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots . " In fact , when ...
... responses indicated that it does : 91 % thought that a player has " a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots . " In fact , when ...
Page 13
... response is to insist that the belief is valid and the data are not . The hot hand exists , the argument goes , it just did not show up in our sample of data . Perhaps it did not appear because being hot is perfectly compensated for by ...
... response is to insist that the belief is valid and the data are not . The hot hand exists , the argument goes , it just did not show up in our sample of data . Perhaps it did not appear because being hot is perfectly compensated for by ...
Page 22
... responses fit the relevant stimulus because the response mode - pointing - is one that can be controlled by each cerebral hemisphere . The most interesting response occurs when the patient is asked to explain the choices he or she made ...
... responses fit the relevant stimulus because the response mode - pointing - is one that can be controlled by each cerebral hemisphere . The most interesting response occurs when the patient is asked to explain the choices he or she made ...
Page 23
... response to our research makes clear , it is also a story about how people cling tenaciously to their beliefs in the face of hostile evidence . In Chapter 4 we return to the subject of how people's theories and expectations influence ...
... response to our research makes clear , it is also a story about how people cling tenaciously to their beliefs in the face of hostile evidence . In Chapter 4 we return to the subject of how people's theories and expectations influence ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York