How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
From inside the book
Results 1-5 of 10
Page 11
... shots a player is considered to have " gone cold ” and is thought to become tense , hesitant , and less likely to make his next few shots . The belief in the hot hand , then , is really one version of a wider conviction that " success ...
... shots a player is considered to have " gone cold ” and is thought to become tense , hesitant , and less likely to make his next few shots . The belief in the hot hand , then , is really one version of a wider conviction that " success ...
Page 12
... shot after making his previous shot ( or previous several shots ) than after missing his previous shot . This implies , in turn , that a player's hits ( and misses ) should cluster together more than one would expect by chance . We ...
... shot after making his previous shot ( or previous several shots ) than after missing his previous shot . This implies , in turn , that a player's hits ( and misses ) should cluster together more than one would expect by chance . We ...
Page 13
... shots whether the number of streaks of various lengths exceeded the number to be expected if individual shots were statistically inde- pendent . Were there more streaks of , say , 4 , 5 , or 6 hits in a row than chance would allow ...
... shots whether the number of streaks of various lengths exceeded the number to be expected if individual shots were statistically inde- pendent . Were there more streaks of , say , 4 , 5 , or 6 hits in a row than chance would allow ...
Page 14
... shots taken in pairs from the same distance and without defensive pressure . If success promotes success , then we would expect a player's shooting percentage on his second shot to be higher after making his first shot than after ...
... shots taken in pairs from the same distance and without defensive pressure . If success promotes success , then we would expect a player's shooting percentage on his second shot to be higher after making his first shot than after ...
Page 15
... shots . ( The biasing effects of people's theories and preconceptions is discussed more thoroughly in Chapter 4. ) 4 ... shots , he has a reasonably good chance of looking like he has the hot hand by making four , five , or even six ...
... shots . ( The biasing effects of people's theories and preconceptions is discussed more thoroughly in Chapter 4. ) 4 ... shots , he has a reasonably good chance of looking like he has the hot hand by making four , five , or even six ...
Other editions - View all
Common terms and phrases
ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York