How We Know What Isn't SoThomas Gilovich offers a wise and readable guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. When can we trust what we believe—that "teams and players have winning streaks," that "flattery works," or that "the more people who agree, the more likely they are to be right"—and when are such beliefs suspect? Thomas Gilovich offers a guide to the fallacy of the obvious in everyday life. Illustrating his points with examples, and supporting them with the latest research findings, he documents the cognitive, social, and motivational processes that distort our thoughts, beliefs, judgments and decisions. In a rapidly changing world, the biases and stereotypes that help us process an overload of complex information inevitably distort what we would like to believe is reality. Awareness of our propensity to make these systematic errors, Gilovich argues, is the first step to more effective analysis and action. |
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Page 5
... thought to be an effective aid for indigestion ( bears , the logic runs , are omnivores and are rarely seen to be ill ) . To understand the severity of this slaughter , it should be noted that the entire bear population in the Great ...
... thought to be an effective aid for indigestion ( bears , the logic runs , are omnivores and are rarely seen to be ill ) . To understand the severity of this slaughter , it should be noted that the entire bear population in the Great ...
Page 6
... thought more generally ? Thinking straight about the world is a precious and difficult process that must be carefully nurtured . By attempting to turn our critical intelligence off and on at will , we risk losing it altogether , and ...
... thought more generally ? Thinking straight about the world is a precious and difficult process that must be carefully nurtured . By attempting to turn our critical intelligence off and on at will , we risk losing it altogether , and ...
Page 11
... thought to become relaxed , to feel confident , and to " get in a groove " such that subsequent success becomes more likely . In contrast , after missing several shots a player is considered to have " gone cold ” and is thought to ...
... thought to become relaxed , to feel confident , and to " get in a groove " such that subsequent success becomes more likely . In contrast , after missing several shots a player is considered to have " gone cold ” and is thought to ...
Page 12
... thought that a player has " a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots . " In fact , when asked to consider a hypothetical player ...
... thought that a player has " a better chance of making a shot after having just made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots . " In fact , when asked to consider a hypothetical player ...
Page 16
... thought that it constituted streak shooting . Note that although these judgments are wrong , it is easy to see why they were made . The sequence above does look like streak shooting . Six of the first eight shots were hits , as were ...
... thought that it constituted streak shooting . Note that although these judgments are wrong , it is easy to see why they were made . The sequence above does look like streak shooting . Six of the first eight shots were hits , as were ...
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ability Albert ambiguous asked assess attribute average behavior biased cancer capital punishment cards causes chance Chapter claims clustering illusion cognitive coin flips confirm confirmatory consider discussed disease distortions entertain erroneous beliefs evaluate everyday evidence example existence expect experience fact failure false consensus effect Gilovich happen heterosexual holistic health holistic medicine hot hand hypothesis illusion immune immune system important ineffective influence Journal of Personality judgment less ment mental motivational Nisbett one-sided one's outcomes paranormal parapsychology participants people's performance Personality and Social phenomena phenomenon players predictions problem processes prophecies psychic questionable and erroneous random regression regression fallacy relevant remote viewing response scientific scientists scores secondhand self-fulfilling prophecies self-handicapping sequences shots similar simply skeptical Skeptical Inquirer Soal Social Psychology someone sometimes statistical story strategies streaks subsequent success target tell tend tendency things thought tion tive treatment York