Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf, Issue 1471
This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The book documents a specialized model used for mission system analysis, which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness. The United States should expect threatened or actual use of mass-casualty weapons against its forces and regional allies and enemy attempts to act quickly and with short warning. On the other hand, the threat's size and quality may be less than usually assumed. On the military side, the book characterizes parametrically the conditions for a successful early halt, thereby identifying high-priority strategic hedges, capability developments, and potential adaptations. The book considers joint forces for interdiction and synergy with rapidly employable ground forces. On the political side, the book notes the premium on continued forward basing, aggressive use of ambiguous warning, and long-range bombers. Continued enforcement of red-line constructs could greatly improve the likelihood of decisive response to ambiguous warning. Countering anti-access strategies would be enhanced by negotiating use of more distant bases and logistic preparation. It will be increasingly unwise to assume use of forward bases, even if technical analysis suggests that the bases could operate under attacks with mass-casualty weapons.
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OVERVIEW OF THE HALT PROBLEM
ANALYTICS OF THE ELEMENTARY HALT PROBLEM
LOSSES TO AIR DEFENSE AND TRADEOFFS BETWEEN LOSSES
15 other sections not shown
200 D-Day Shooter AFVs air defenses Air Force aircraft Amax Analytica analytical anti-armor missions anti-armor shooters armored fighting vehicles assumed attack attrition bases Blue Blue's bombers buildup C4ISR calculations capability Chapter column command and control D-Day Shooter Input Davis defense line Defense Science Board delay depends deploy deployment rate Dline early halt EXHALT EXHALT-CF exploratory analysis factors Figure Force effectiveness formulas Fpost Fpre frac fraction ground forces halt distance halt problem in-depth strategy interdiction invasion kills per shooter kills per sortie km/day KPSD Kuwait City leading-edge strategy long-range maneuver mass-destruction weapons McEver missiles mission-system monograph movement rate munitions nominal nomogram number of D-Day number of shooters operations parameters red line Red's reduced scenario space SEAD shooter day shooter effectiveness simulation slowing effect solutions sortie rate speed strategic warning Table tactics Texh Thalt theater capacity threat Threshold Tmax TSEAD Twait values variables vehicles WSQE