## Proceedings of the ... International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Volume 16, Parts 2-3American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1997 - Arctic regions |

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Page 133

PROSPECTS OF A NEW STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE LONG -

PREDICTION Akiji Shinkai Naval Architecture and Ocean Systems Engineering ,

Faculty of Engineering , Kyushu University 36 Hakozaki , Higashi - ku , Fukuoka

812 ...

PROSPECTS OF A NEW STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE LONG -

**TERM**PREDICTION Akiji Shinkai Naval Architecture and Ocean Systems Engineering ,

Faculty of Engineering , Kyushu University 36 Hakozaki , Higashi - ku , Fukuoka

812 ...

Page 134

Then the later case , i.e. the numerical integration dependent technique , is

namely the Fukuda's method ( 1968a ) , in which the long -

obtained only by numerical calculations . Since the technique is convenient for

practical ...

Then the later case , i.e. the numerical integration dependent technique , is

namely the Fukuda's method ( 1968a ) , in which the long -

**term**distribution isobtained only by numerical calculations . Since the technique is convenient for

practical ...

Page 139

In the figure , the relative values of the long -

exceeding probability divided by the ones based on the GWS data are also

shown as a function of observation number of each wave statistical data . As

seen from the ...

In the figure , the relative values of the long -

**term**prediction results at 10-8exceeding probability divided by the ones based on the GWS data are also

shown as a function of observation number of each wave statistical data . As

seen from the ...

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### Contents

SPECTRAL MODELLING OF WAVES | 1 |

RISK ANALYSIS | 33 |

PROBABILISTIC MODELLING OF WAVES | 99 |

Copyright | |

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analysis applied approach assessment assumed bending calculated carried compared condition considered corrosion crack critical curve damage defects depth determined developed direction distribution earthquake effect element energy Engineering equation estimated evaluated experiment factor failure fatigue Figure force fracture frequency function given growth heat increase indicates initiation inspection International Japan joints length limited loading maintenance material maximum mean measured mechanical method notch observed obtained offshore operations parameters performed period pipe plate platform position prediction present pressure probability procedure properties range relative reliability reported Research respectively response risers safety ship shown shows side simulation specimens spectra standard statistical steel strain strength stress structure surface Table temperature term thickness toughness underwater wave weld metal welded joints yield