Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White HouseThink that Richard Nixon lost the 1960 presidential election because he sweated on TV? Or that John Kerry was “swiftboated” out of the presidency in 2004? Think again! In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860, Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2012. |
Contents
1 Logic of the Keys How Presidential Elections Really Work | 1 |
2 Turning the Keys to the Pres | 19 |
3 Civil War and Reconstruction | 49 |
4 The Gilded Age | 65 |
5 Rise and Fall of Progressivism | 81 |
6 Depression War and Cold War | 99 |
7 New Directions War and Scandal | 123 |
8 Reagan and Beyond | 143 |
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Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House, 2012 Edition Allan Lichtman Limited preview - 2012 |
Common terms and phrases
achieve Al Gore American ballots Barack Obama Bill Clinton Bush’s campaign candidate Carter challenger Challenging-party nominee charisma Cleveland Clinton Congress conservative contest key convention defeat deficit Despite domestic Eisenhower elec electoral college electoral votes executive party failure favor federal forecast foreign foreign-policy gained George Bush George H. W. Bush Gerald Ford Harry Truman Herbert Hoover Hoover House seats incumbency key incumbent administration incumbent party Incumbent-party nominee initiatives Jimmy Carter Kennedy Key 9 lacked leader legislation long-term economy key lost major mandate key midterm elections military Negative keys Nixon nomination Obama party in power percent policy change policy-change key political keys polls popular vote prediction presidential elections programs recession reelection Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Roosevelt scandal key second term secured Key Senate short-term economy key social unrest social-unrest key Soviet third-party tion Truman turn Key Vice President victory voters White House win rate