Butterfly Economics: A New General Theory of Social and Economic BehaviorWhy did VHS, an inferior video recording technology, succeed in the marketplace, driving the superior Betamax out of business? Why do big-budget, acclaimed movies sometimes flop at the box office, while low-budget, idiosyncratic films become huge hits? The answers to these questions, says Paul Omerod, remind us that economics is a science based on the workings of human society, as unpredictable an entity as there is. "Conventional economics is mistaken," claimes Omerod, "when it views the economy as a machine, whose behavior, no matter how complicated, is ultimately predictable and controllable." In this cogently and elegantly argued analysis of why human beings persist in engaging in behavior that defies time-honored economic theory, Omerod also explains why governments and industries throughout the world must completely reconfigure their traditional methods of economic forecasting if they are to succeed and prosper in an increasingly global marketplace. |
Contents
TWO Dedicated Followers of Fashion | |
THREE To Catch a Thief | |
FOUR Family Values | |
FIVE Use the Maths Then Burn It | |
SIX The Illusion of Control | |
SEVEN A Quantitative Quagmire | |
EIGHT Ups and Downs | |
NINE Through a Glass Darkly | |
The TEN Wealth of Nations | |
TWELVE Great Oaks from Little Acorns | |
Less Can Be More | |
Appendix | |
Bibliography | |
Other editions - View all
Butterfly Economics: A New General Theory of Social and Economic Behaviour Paul Ormerod No preview available - 1998 |
Butterfly Economics: A New General Theory of Social and Economic Behavior Paul Ormerod No preview available - 2001 |
Common terms and phrases
actual data American amount Angus Maddison ants model approach average basic behaviour of individuals Betamax Butterfly Economics capital cent century changes Chapter chart chartists colony companies conventional economics countries crime rates decisions econometricians economic growth economic incentive economic theory economists effect efficient markets theory enormous Europe example exist factors Figure film fluctuations forecasts foreign exchange markets future given growth rate impact important incentive to stay increasing returns individual agents industry inflation interacting agents Keynes labour large number lead mathematical orthodox economic outcome output growth output per head overall particular PAUL ORMEROD period plot population positive prediction principle problems production profits random rate of growth real business cycle reasonable returns to scale rules short-term simply simulated small number Solow model spending stay married structure success switch technology shock unemployment Urn Problem visiting Western economies words