Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic Support for U.S. Military OperationsIt is often said that the Vietnam War taught us that the American public is no longer willing to tolerate American casualties in U.S. wars and military operations. There are also two contradictory corollaries: one that the first deaths in a conflict will spark demands for immediate withdrawal, the other that casualties lead to an inexorable demand for "escalation to victory." The truth is far more subtle and sensible. The simplest explanation consistent with the data is that public support for U.S. military operations and public tolerance for casualties are based upon a sensible weighing of benefits and costs that is influenced heavily by consensus (or its absence) among political leaders. When such agreement is missing, even low costs can erode public support for the intervention. In the end, most Americans do not want lives to be sacrificed for any but the most compelling and promising causes, and they rely on their leaders to illuminate just how compelling and promising these causes are. |
Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
ORGANIZATION OF THIS REPORT | 2 |
THE BASES OF SUPPORT | 5 |
CASUALTIES AND SUPPORT | 7 |
A SIMPLE WEIGHING OF ENDS AND MEANS | 10 |
WORLD WAR II | 14 |
Prospects for Success | 16 |
Expected and Actual Costs | 17 |
THE KOREAN WAR | 54 |
Escalation Sentiment | 55 |
An Unhappy Equilibrium | 56 |
Conclusions | 59 |
Escalation Sentiment | 61 |
Withdrawal Sentiment | 62 |
A Return to the Unhappy Equilibrium | 63 |
Conclusions | 66 |
Conclusion | 18 |
THE KOREAN WAR | 19 |
Perceived Stakes and Benefits | 20 |
Prospects for Success | 21 |
Costs | 22 |
THE VIETNAM WAR | 24 |
Perceived Stakes and Benefits | 25 |
Prospects for Success | 26 |
Expected and Actual Costs | 27 |
Conclusion | 29 |
THE GULF WAR | 30 |
The Question of Costs | 35 |
Conclusion | 40 |
Costs | 42 |
Perceived Benefits and Prospects | 43 |
Costs | 44 |
Somalia and the Myth of the CNN Effect | 45 |
Conclusion | 47 |
CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS | 49 |
POLARIZATION OVER COMMITMENT | 53 |
SOMALIA | 67 |
Revisiting the Myth of the CNN Effect | 71 |
Conclusions | 72 |
LEADERSHIP CONSENSUS AND DISSENSUS | 75 |
LEADERSHIP AND FOLLOWERSHIP | 76 |
KOREA | 79 |
Support for the Korean War | 80 |
Policy Preferences | 82 |
VIETNAM | 86 |
Support for the War | 87 |
Policy Preferences | 88 |
THE GULF WAR | 91 |
SOMALIA | 94 |
Policy Preferences | 95 |
CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS | 96 |
Chapter Five | 99 |
IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS | 101 |
PUBLIC OPINION DATA | 105 |
BIBLIOGRAPHY | 121 |
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Casualties and Consensus: The Historical Role of Casualties in Domestic ... Eric Victor Larson,Rand No preview available - 1996 |
Common terms and phrases
Aidid AIPO American approved asked bipartisan bombing Chapter CNN Effect congressional continued costs December December 21 declining support Democrats differences dissensus Dominican Republic expected factors favored fighting Figure foreign policy Function of U.S. Gallup Gulf Gulf War immediate withdrawal important Inchon increased information level Iraq June Korea and Vietnam Korean War Kuwait Lebanon levels of support majority media reporting Mogadishu Mueller NORC Noriega North Vietnam November October option orderly withdrawal Panama partisan perceived benefits Perceived Stakes percent thought percentage polarization policy preferences political leaders President presidential prospects for success public opinion data public support rally RAND Republicans respondents result right thing role of casualties Saddam Hussein Second World Second World War shows Somalia Stakes and Benefits suggests support for U.S. Table Tet offensive Time/CNN Truman U.S. Battle Deaths U.S. casualties U.S. forces U.S. military interventions U.S. military operations U.S. servicemen U.S. troops United Vietnam War Zaller
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