Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability OptionsAn analytical framework and methodology for capability-area reviews is described, along with new tools to support capabilities analysis and strategic-level defense planning in the Defense Department and the Services. BCOT generates and screens preliminary options, and the Portfolio-Analysis Tool (PAT) is used to evaluate options that pass screening. The concepts are illustrated with applications to Global Strike and Ballistic Missile Defense. Recommendations are made for further defense-planning research. |
Contents
Chapter One Introduction | 1 |
The CapabilitiesDevelopmentProcess | 3 |
Chapter Three A Framework and a Generic Terms of Reference | 17 |
Chapter Four Tools to Enable the Framework | 35 |
Global Strike | 47 |
Ballistic Missile Defense | 105 |
Chapter Seven Conclusions and Next Steps | 121 |
Appendix A Joint Capability Areas | 125 |
Appendix B Implications for Systems Engineering andModeling and Simulation | 131 |
Appendix C RANDs PortfolioAnalysis Tools | 137 |
Endnotes | 145 |
Bibliography | 155 |
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Common terms and phrases
Acquisition advanced bomber air defenses Air Force analytic assessment assumptions attack August 15 Ballistic Missile Defense baseline basing BCOT building blocks C4ISR Calif capabilities-based planning Chapter Characterize column Composite Options CONOPS conventional cost countermeasures cruise missiles Davis decisionmakers Defense Science Board Define Department of Defense discussed DoD’s effectiveness efficient frontier evaluation example execution exploratory analysis factors Figure Forw framework Global Strike Global Strike Raid ICBM investment issues JCAs Joint Capability Areas Joint Staff methodology military Missile Defense Agency mission mobile missiles monograph National nuclear Operations parameterized penaids penetration aids perspective planning scenarios portfolio portfolio analysis portfolio-analysis tool potential problem radar RAND Corporation requirements Research Santa Monica scenario class scenario space scorecard Secretary of Defense sensors SLBM SOF vehicle spanning set systems engineering Table targets technical Technology terrorist timeliness Trident uncertainty USD AT&L warning weapons WMD facilities Zooming