On Thermonuclear War
On Thermonuclear War was controversial when originally published and remains so today. It is iconoclastic, crosses disciplinary boundaries, and finally it is calm and compellingly reasonable. The book was widely read on both sides of the Iron Curtain and the result was serious revision in both Western and Soviet strategy and doctrine. As a result, both sides were better able to avoid disaster during the Cold War.
The strategic concepts still apply: defense, local animosities, and the usual balance-of-power issues are still very much with us. Kahn's stated purpose in writing this book was simply: "avoiding disaster and buying time, without specifying the use of this time." By the late 1950s, with both sides H-bomb-armed, reason and time were in short supply. Kahn, a military analyst at Rand since 1948, understood that a defense based only on thermonuclear arnaments was inconceivable, morally questionable, and not credible.
The book was the first to make sense of nuclear weapons. Originally created from a series of lectures, it provides insight into how policymakers consider such issues. One may agree with Kahn or disagree with him on specific issues, but he clearly defined the terrain of the argument. He also looks at other weapons of mass destruction such as biological and chemical, and the history of their use. The Cold War is over, but the nuclear genie is out of the bottle, and the lessons and principles developed in On Thermonuclear War apply as much to today's China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as they did to the Soviets.
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Alternative National Strategies
Will the Survivors Envy the Dead?
Seven Optimistic Assumptions
Neither Oblivion nor Surrender
Conﬂicting Objectives IV
Long War Capabilities
Implications for Study and Analysis
Other Important Concepts
The Role of Analysis
Peacetime Objectives of a Strategic Force
Desirable Characteristics of a Deterrent
Wartime Objectives of Defender
Flexible War Plans for Defender
Stresses and Strains
Could the Missile Gap Have Been Dangerous?
Four Typical Caveats
U S Must Convince S U That
The Arms Controllers View of War
Areas for Arms Control
Some Problems of Arms Control
VI Additional Remarks on the Military Problems
Reactions to Warning
Problems of Mobile Systems
Effectiveness of Aimed and Area Attacks
To Protect All Deterrent Forces
To Protect the United States
On the Analytic Approach to Defense Problems
The German Air Defense Analysis
Why Dont We Care?
VIII The Real Past
IX The Hypothetical Past
Comparison of Select Capital and Consumer Goods
H Proposal for a War Damage Equalization Corporation
Comparison of Insurance Rates on Residential Houses
Simpliﬁed Analysis of the Value of Protective Construction