Thinking and DecidingThe fifth edition of the classic text Thinking and Deciding updates the broad overview of the field of judgments and decisions offered in previous editions. It covers the normative standards used to evaluate conclusions, such as logic, probability, and various forms of utility theory. It explains descriptive accounts of departures from these standards, largely in terms of principles of cognitive psychology, emphasizing the distinction between search processes and inferences. Chapters cover decisions under risk, decision analysis, moral decisions and social dilemmas, and decisions about the future. Although the book assumes no particular prerequisites beyond introductory high-school algebra, it is most suited to advanced undergraduates, early graduate students, and active researchers in related fields, such as business, politics, law, medicine, economics, and philosophy. |
Contents
What is thinking? | 5 |
1 | 23 |
Conclusion | 32 |
6 | 62 |
5 | 79 |
4 | 88 |
Normative theory of probability | 109 |
7 | 140 |
Decision analysis and values | 339 |
Quantitative judgment | 359 |
Moral judgment and choice | 379 |
Fairness and justice | 405 |
Cooperation vs defection | 427 |
Decisions about the future | 451 |
References | 475 |
33333 | 489 |
Judgment of correlation and contingency | 183 |
Actively openminded thinking AOT | 197 |
Normative theory | 225 |
Risk | 271 |
Choice under certainty | 295 |
Utility measurement | 315 |
53 | 498 |
Author Index | 515 |
| 518 | |
| 523 | |
| 525 | |
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Common terms and phrases
achieve our goals Allais paradox answer argument asked subjects assume attributes ball Baron behavior beliefs benefit better bias biases cancer cause Chapter choice choose concerned conclusion consider correct correlation cost decision analysis described dimension discussed disease effect emotions error evaluate evidence example expected utility expected value expected-utility theory experiment Experimental favor function gamble given heuristics hypothesis idea inference intuitions involve Journal judge Kahneman kind logic means measure mental accounts mental model method moral myside normative model normative theory omission bias option outcomes patients person possible posterior probability predict prescriptive principle prior probability probability judgments probability theory problem prospect theory Psychology question rational reason relevant representativeness heuristic result risk risk aversion rule score situation Slovic sort subjects were asked Suppose syllogism task tend true Tversky utilitarianism utility theory winning