Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary ScreeningDescription of a methodology and a prototype tool, Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), for identifying investment options for defense capability areas. It ensures that a broad range of options is considered initially, then uses a screening technique to narrow the range to those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework. BCOT extends classic economics and operations-research techniques and suggests pragmatic approximations, particularly in capabilities-based planning. |
Contents
CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION | 1 |
CHAPTER TWO BCOTS STRUCTURE AND FLOW | 4 |
INPUTS AND OUTPUTS | 17 |
CHAPTER FOUR A NOTIONAL EXAMPLE | 21 |
CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS | 35 |
Appendix A EFFECTIVENESS CALCULATIONS | 41 |
Appendix B SUBTLETIES IN THE CONCEPT OF NEARNESS TO THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER | 45 |
Appendix C A GENETIC ALGORITHM APPROACH FOR IDENTIFYING GOOD CANDIDATEOPTIONS | 48 |
Appendix D CHANGING BUILDING BLOCKS OR SCENARIOS | 53 |
Appendix E CHANGING LIST NAMES SCENARIOS FOCUS ETC | 55 |
Appendix F CHANGING PARAMETERS | 56 |
Appendix G ARRAY OPERATIONS USED IN BCOT | 57 |
Appendix H EXCELBASED GRAPHICS FOR BCOT | 67 |
BIBLIOGRAPHY | 69 |
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Common terms and phrases
air defenses aircraft AMWS Appendix application assumption set Attributes of Options BCOT’s bit strings Blocks to Composite building blocks building-block options candidate options changes combination of building Combined Options components cost and effectiveness Cost-Sorted Davis defined Definition and Functions effectiveness calculation effectiveness function effectiveness scores efficient frontier efficient-frontier employment mode empty cells exploratory analysis Figure filtering Find Options fitness function force-employment mode fraction gene pool genetic algorithm Global Strike problem graphic gray points Identify interface investment options mathematics methodology Microsoft Excel Missile Defense Agency mission mobile missiles mobile-missile scenario module multidimensional array nonlinear correction notional example number of options offspring operations parameter values portfolio analysis Positive Subset power set quasi-linear approximation RAND Corporation redundant rows Santa Monica scenario class scenario test screening focus set of options specified staircase function step Table tell Analytica test scenarios union of options version of BCOT weapon