AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative ApproachAIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material -- such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence -- is not available in any other work. |
Contents
| 3 | |
RISK FACTORS FOR INFECTION AND | 19 |
SURVEYS TO DETERMINE SEROPREVALENCE | 51 |
THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION | 82 |
COFACTORS AND MARKERS | 113 |
SCREENING AND ACCURACY OF TESTS FOR HIV | 147 |
STATISTICAL ISSUES IN SURVEILLANCE OF AIDS | 170 |
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Common terms and phrases
Acquired Immune Deficiency AIDS incidence data AIDS-related complex antibody assay assumed assumptions Bacchetti back-calculation behavior blood Brookmeyer calendar CD4+ T cell cell levels Centers for Disease clinical trials cofactors cohort studies covariates cumulative number dates of infection develop AIDS diagnosed Disease Control donors endpoint England Journal Epidemiology equation example exponential Figure follow-up function Gail Goedert hazard hemophilia heterosexual HIV disease HIV infection HIV prevalence HIV seroprevalence homosexual human immunodeficiency virus Immune Deficiency Syndromes incubation distribution incubation period distribution infected individuals infection curve infection rates initial interval intravenous drug users Journal of Medicine marker nonresponders numbers infected Padian parameters parametric models Partner Study Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia population prevalent cohort probability progression to AIDS relative risk reporting delay risk factors risk groups Rosenberg sample San Francisco screening Section sensitivity seroconversion seropositive seroprevalence surveys sexual statistical subgroups Table transfusion transmission treatment vaccine viral Western blot zidovudine
Popular passages
Page 3 - AIDS as a disease, at least moderately predictive of a defect in cellmediated immunity, occurring in a person with no known cause for diminished resistance to that disease.