AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach

Front Cover
Oxford University Press, Jan 6, 1994 - Medical - 376 pages
AIDS has appeared in more than 130 countries, and over 100,000 cases of AIDS have been reported in the U.S. alone. More and more, the public will be depending on statisticians to provide answers about the future course of this epidemic. This comprehensive work confronts the problems that are unique to AIDS research and unites them under a single conceptual framework. It focuses on methods for the design and analysis of epidemiologic studies, the natural history of AIDS and the transmission of HIV, methods for tracking and projecting the course of the epidemic, and statistical issues in therapeutic trials. The various methods of monitoring and forecasting this disease receive comprehensive treatment. These methods include back-calculation, which the authors developed; interpretation of survey data on HIV prevalence; mathematical models for HIV transmission; and approaches that combine different types of epidemiological data. Much of this material -- such as a discussion of methods for assessing safety of the blood supply, an evaluation of survey approaches, and methods to project pediatric AIDS incidence -- is not available in any other work.
 

What people are saying - Write a review

We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.

Contents

Introduction
3
12 HIV VIRUS AND ITS CLINICAL EFFECTS
5
13 MEASURING THE EPIDEMIC
12
14 WORLDWIDE SCOPE OF THE EPIDEMIC
16
Risk Factors for Infection and the Probability of HIV Transmission
19
22 STUDIES OF AIDS PATIENTS
20
23 CASECONTROL AND COHORT STUDIES TO IDENTIFY RISK FACTORS
23
24 RISKS FROM POINT EXPOSURES
32
65 ASSAYS FOR LIVE VIRUS FOR HIV ANTIGEN AND FOR HIV GENOME
168
Statistical Issues in Surveillance of AIDS Incidence
170
73 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF REPORTING DELAYS
171
74 UNDERREPORTING OF AIDS CASES
180
75 CHANGES IN THE SURVEILLANCE DEFINITION
181
76 EMPIRICAL EXTRAPOLATION OF AIDS INCIDENCE
184
BackCalculation
189
82 DETERMINISTIC DECONVOLUTION
192

25 SEXUAL TRANSMISSION AND PARTNER STUDIES
36
Surveys to Determine Seroprevalence and Seroincidence
51
32 ESTIMATING SEROPREVALENCE RATES FROM REPRESENTATIVE PROBABILITYBASED SAMPLES
54
33 SURVEYS OF SELECTED SUBPOPULATIONS
69
FROM SURVEYS OF SELECTED SUBPOPULATIONS
72
35 ESTIMATING HIV INCIDENCE FROM SURVEY DATA
75
The Incubation Period Distribution
82
42 MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION
84
43 RETROSPECTIVE DATA ON AIDS CASES
87
44 PREVALENT COHORT STUDIES
94
45 STUDIES WITH DOUBLY CENSORED AND INTERVAL CENSORED DATA
96
46 DECONVOLUTION METHODS BackCalculating the Incubation Distribution
104
47 DURATION OF THE PREANTIBODY PHASE
107
48 SYNTHESIS OF KNOWLEDGE OF THE INCUBATION PERIOD DISTRIBUTION
109
Cofactors and Markers
113
52 COFACTORS AND DOUBLY CENSORED DATA
116
53 Cofactors and Prevalent Cohort Studies
121
54 COFACTORS AND RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES OF CASES
126
55 MARKERS AS PROGNOSTIC FACTORS
128
56 THE MARKER TRAJECTORY
133
57 OTHER USES OF MARKERS
141
58 VARIABILITY OF MARKERS
143
59 SYNTHESIS OF KNOWLEDGE OF COFACTORS AND MARKERS
144
Screening and Accuracy of Tests for HIV
147
62 SENSITIVITY SPECIFICITY AND RELATED MEASURES OF ACCURACY FOR DIAGNOSTIC TESTS
148
63 SCREENING APPLICATIONS AND POSITIVE PREDICTIVE VALUE
158
64 SAFETY OF THE BLOOD SUPPLY
161
83 STATISTICAL DECONVOLUTION
195
84 UNCERTAINTY IN BACKCALCULATION
206
85 BACKCALCULATION FOR INVESTIGATING HYPOTHESES ABOUT THE INFECTION RATE
215
EXTENSION TO ACCOUNT FOR NONSTATIONARY INCUBATION DISTRIBUTIONS
217
87 APPLICATION TO THE US AIDS EPIDEMIC
222
88 TECHNICAL NOTES
226
Epidemic Transmission Models
231
92 A CLOSED TWOCOMPARTMENT MODEL
234
93 GENERALIZATIONS OF THE CLOSED TWOCOMPARTMENT MODEL
241
94 HETEROGENEOUS SUBGROUPS AND THE IMPORTANCE OF MIXING PATTERNS
245
95 EVALUATING PREVENTION STRATEGIES
250
96 STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODELS
253
97 COMPARING PARAMETERS IN EPIDEMIC MODELS WITH EMPIRICAL ESTIMATES OF DOUBLING TIMES AND HIV PREVALENCE R...
254
98 DISCUSSION
259
Synthesizing Data Sources and Methods for Assessing the Scope of the Epidemic
261
102 COMBINING DATA AND METHODS
262
103 FORECASTING IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
267
104 FORECASTING PEDIATRIC AIDS
271
105 FORECASTING FOR SMALL AREAS
278
Developing and Evaluating New Therapies and Vaccines
283
113 APPROACHES TO THERAPY BASED ON THE PATHOPHYSIOLOGY OF HIV DISEASE
289
114 OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES
291
115 SPECIAL PROBLEMS AND DESIGN ISSUES IN CLINICAL TRIALS FOR HIV DISEASE
296
116 VACCINE TRIALS
306
References
317
Index
343
Copyright

Other editions - View all

Common terms and phrases

Popular passages

Page 3 - AIDS as a disease, at least moderately predictive of a defect in cellmediated immunity, occurring in a person with no known cause for diminished resistance to that disease.
Page 321 - Interpretation and use of the Western Blot assay for serodiagnosis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infections.
Page 336 - The risk of pneumocystis carinii pneumonia among men Infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1.
Page 324 - Echt DS. Liebson PR. Mitchell LB. et al. Mortality and morbidity in patients receiving encainide. flecainide. or placebo. The Cardiac Arrhythmia Suppression Trial.
Page 327 - Goedert JJ, Kessler CM, Aledort LM, et al. A prospective study of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and the development of AIDS in subjects with hemophilia.
Page 321 - Centers for Disease Control. Revision of the case definition of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome for national reporting — United States.
Page 321 - Immunodeficiency among female sexual partners of males with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) — New York.
Page 332 - Patterns of T lymphocyte changes with human immunodeficiency virus infection: from seroconversion to the development of AIDS.

Bibliographic information