Angus Mcfarlane's Reviews > Thinking, Fast and Slow

This was an insightful read. Unlike many popular accounts of research, this was written by the researcher himself, thus contains his distillation of a long career thinking and publishing in the field. The main topic is the psychology of decision making, with the thesis being that the instinctive (fast) decision making processes of the brain are dominant over the reasoning (slow) processes, since the latter are hard work and we are lazy. While instinct is very efficient and generally very good, it is also subject to bias and systematic errors. But why this matters is the most interesting thing about this book.

One of these is is the effect of anchoring - introduction of information will influence the decision made. So experienced negotiators will seek to influence the result by planting an anchoring value which biases the decision. Planning is likewise influenced by the best case anchor idealized by the planning team. Another bias regards risk assessment - we either exaggerate the risk (fear overlays our ability to conceptualize the possible scenario) or ignore it altogether. Interestingly, this bias, along with the conjugate confidence estimations, are relatively consistent and quantifiable. We have an outcome bias: when something goes wrong we assume the risk was obviously too high and a bad decision was made that allowed it. Also, we fear losses more than we do costs even though the net outcome is equivalent.

But these potted examples can do little justice to a book so rich in depth and detail, nor can a quick review allow someone who hasn't read this for themselves get much insight of the content. Indeed, in delaying the review I've written, I'm reminded of how much I've not retained, and the need to revise regularly if this is to sink in properly. The nice thing about the book is that there are some practical quips at the end of each chapter to help summarize and embed the content. Nor is the writing difficult - it's just that the points made are counter-intuitive and therefore hard to accept. Deserves to be widely read and taught!