Tamar's Reviews > Thinking, Fast and Slow

Some insights in here. Painful to slog through the arrogant writing style. If you are a quant type, you will gag reading this.

He states early in the book, that although he teaches statistics, he never computed a sample size by a proper calculation - then goes onto pontificate regarding the Law of Small Numbers. Failing to indicate what of his research he references in the book is subject to The Law of Small Numbers (ie a crappy and biased sample), it is difficult to take ANY his "surprising" findings seriously. (He finds everything "surprising" - perhaps living in a cave and never observed the human race?) Perhaps if you are in his field or impressed by his fancy titles, you are likely to use your various biases to assume that everything he says is true, without need for documentation, analysis or study. Because he is smart, and you are stupid. ( But hey, wait, isn't the point of reading this to better understand how to NOT DO THAT?)

Anyways, after the sample size disclosure, I finished it with a skim and a couple dives into the klunky text every time I saw the word "Bayes". And hey, it's not even easy to skim - key points are buried under tedious, often self-absorbed and arrogant long winded tales of all the various famous academic pundits he has had the tremendous great fortune to rub elbows with and enlighten all of us idiots. And with these great encounters, he has apparently discovered... Game Theory and STATISTICS. WOW!

While he refers to statistics, he states his book doesn't go into statistics, like with formulas. This said, he is using "statistical thinking" really, for the ENTIRE DISCUSSION. In every section there are little logical "tests" and he is quite "in your face" about how "you", the dumb reader, surely missed it. So, it is not surprising that there are just references to statistics and the dumb readers can rely on our deep and undying System 1 need to believe and have faith in him and his genius and all his genius peers. Seriously, if you are a quant type, your head will explode. If you're not a quant type, the long-winded rambling text will make you miserable. And make you feel stupid.

As for the "science" of thinking - he describes our thinking in System 1 (intuitive) and System 2 (slow & rational). There is no scientific research discussion presented to defend these classifications.

Reading this sentence pretty much sums up his "science" of thinking: Don't do stupid impulsive stuff. Try to slow down and think. Don't let people fool you, cheat you, talk you into stupid stuff, and form unrealistic views of the world. Take time to do the math for important stuff. Be careful with the media. You can be influenced by stuff around you that you can't control. Don't worry too much. Don't take stupid bets. (Apparently, before this book, there was no common sense or life experience to guide us.)

And if you have big decisions, what he doesn't say but should: Consult a mathy person for mathematically stuff.

Buried in here are some interesting economic and decision theory puzzles. Also, there are some classic business strategies discussed, such as the use of Anchoring in negotiations - and the ability to influence opinion with Framing. These could come in handy. But whatever you do, please do not blindly follow his guidance on construction business revenue forecasts.

I wish I had just bought one of the summaries of this book greedily written by the Wall Street trader crowd to glean out any new tips on thinking smarter. Well, at least I'm up on the latest in what we are all abuzz about these days. Certainly teaches me to read trendy books expecting to find what the school of common sense and hard knocks is happy to teach you.